Highlighting the high level of oil inventories in
the developed world and weakness in US petrol demand this summer, Opec
said: “Despite the recent positive developments in crude prices, the
market is fundamentally weak.” Although China on Tuesday reported July
as a record month for crude imports, Opec said it expected Chinese oil
demand to rise only 100,000 barrels a day this year to average 8.05m
b/d in 2009. Following an increase of more than 50 per cent in oil
prices this year, Opec’s members will meet in September in Vienna to
review production quotas. The US Energy Information Administration on
Tuesday lowered its 2009 world oil demand estimate. In its new monthly
energy forecast, the EIA said it expected global oil consumption to
drop 1.71m b/d to a revised 83.76m b/d this year compared with 2008. In
July, the agency had estimated that petroleum demand would fall 1.56m
b/d in 2009. Some analysts had expected the EIA to bolster its world
oil demand forecast based on some positive economic reports that had
pushed oil prices up to $70 per barrel this week. Sugar prices
extended the previous session’s strong gains. Liffe October white sugar
rose 0.5 per cent to $560.0 a tonne following a jump of 3.8 per cent in
the previous session. ICE October raw sugar, the global benchmark,
added 0.6 per cent at 22.12 cents a pound after jumping 5.7 per cent in
the previous session. Raw sugar prices hit 22.44 cents a pound in the
previous session, the highest level since mid-1981, amid concerns about
low global stocks and bad weather affecting output in Brazil and India,
the world’s two largest sugar producers. Traders said physical buyers
were believed to be waiting in the wings, hoping for a correction.
IntercontinentalExchange increased initial sugar margin requirements
from $900 a lot to $1,400 for commercial market participants and from
$1,260 to $1,960 for speculators, effective from Tuesday’s close
following the dramatic increase in the market’s volatility over the
past week. Orange juice prices jumped 3.9 per cent to $1.11 cents a
pound, up 43.2 per cent since the start of July amid concerns that
production in Florida this year could prove disappointing. Florida
produced 162.1m boxes in 2008-09 [a box weighs 90 pounds] but market
talk suggests output could decline to 155m boxes. Two key reports next
week should provide greater insight into this year’s crop prospects
ahead of the US government’s first update, due out in October. In
Chicago, traders awaited the US Department of Agriculture August crop
report, due out on Wednesday. CBOT September corn rose 1¾ cents to $3.26 a
bushel while CBOT September wheat dipped 4½ cents
to $4.98¾ a bushel and CBOT August soyabeans
increased 29½ cents to $12.
Copyright The
Financial Times Limited
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